NOAA’s National Weather Service forecasters from the Climate Prediction Center anticipate heightened hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin for the upcoming 2024 hurricane season. This forecast, spanning from June 1 to November 30, projects an 85 percent probability of an above-normal season, with a 10 percent likelihood of near-normal conditions and a 5 percent chance of a below-normal season.
NOAA’s outlook predicts a range of 17 to 25 total named storms with winds reaching 39 mph or higher, of which 8 to 13 could intensify into hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher. Furthermore, 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5; winds exceeding 111 mph) are expected. Forecasters express a 70 percent confidence level in these estimates.
Several contributing factors, such as near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, the emergence of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and diminished wind shear, are driving expectations for elevated tropical storm formation in the upcoming season.
“With another active hurricane season approaching, NOAA’s commitment to keeping every American informed with life-saving information is unwavering,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “AI-enabled language translations and a new depiction of inland wind threats in the forecast cone are just two examples of the proactive steps our agency is taking to meet our mission of saving lives and protecting property.”
“Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today,” said FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks. “Already, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding and hail. Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow.”
As one of the strongest El Ninos on record ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists anticipate a swift transition to La Nina conditions. Such a shift is favorable for Atlantic hurricane activity, as La Nina commonly reduces wind shear within the tropics. Additionally, the presence of substantial oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea provides ample fuel for storm development.
The current hurricane season harbors the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, known to generate African easterly waves that can initiate the formation of robust and long-lasting Atlantic storms. Furthermore, light trade winds promote hurricane intensification without the hindrance of strong wind shear, while also mitigating ocean cooling.
“Human-caused climate change is warming our ocean globally and in the Atlantic basin, and melting ice on land, leading to sea level rise, which increases the risk of storm surge. Sea level rise represents a clear human influence on the damage potential from a given hurricane,” according to the statement from NOAA.